In this alert, we examine the allocation of financial risk and the viability of commercial concession agreements for private operators within Gulf aviation hubs in the context of the 2026 Gulf War. Disruptions to transit traffic, retail operations, and passenger volumes during periods of hostilities expose severe structural weaknesses in standard force majeure clauses, insurance covers, and sovereign safety nets that are often calibrated for peacetime conditions. These issues arise across airport retail environments, duty-free concessions, maintenance services, and hospitality frameworks, where private parties rely on fixed-rent contracts and standard insurance provisions that may not adequately respond to conflict-driven losses.
The Middle East serves as the primary global aviation transit hub, strategically bridging international air traffic between Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas. The region’s preeminence is anchored by its “megahubs”—Dubai International Airport (DXB), Hamad International Airport (DOH), and Zayed International Airport (AUH)—which function as the vital routes of global commerce and mobility. However, the onset of the Gulf War of 2026 has placed all regional airport commercial operators and concessions at risk of sustained and catastrophic financial losses.
Gulf airports are not just transit points; they are massive retail environments. Commercial operators (duty-free shops, luxury brands, and restaurants) pay high fixed rents based on high passenger volumes. Even if the war stops “transit” traffic, these businesses face solvency issues because their costs remain high while their revenue disappears.
The commercial repercussions of this conflict are comprehensive, affecting the entire airport ecosystem, from landside public services to specialized airside retail zones. A critical fiscal disparity exists within the Gulf’s aviation model: while primary airports and flagship carriers are typically government-owned and benefit from sovereign financial backing, the supporting infrastructure is comprised of private entities. Consequently, in-terminal retail concessionaires, service providers, car rental agencies, airport maintenance firms, and manpower supply companies must bear the primary financial brunt of the crisis. Without the state-level safety nets afforded to national carriers, these private firms must adopt specific, urgent legal and economic measures to ensure their continued viability.
All Middle Eastern states—including Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen—are signatories to ICAO standards and protocols. These international guidelines recommend that, in periods of regional emergency, states should implement fiscal relief measures, such as rental and tax holidays, to preserve the private-sector infrastructure of the aviation industry. Crucially, such relief is rarely granted through automatic administrative action.
Private airport retailers and concessionaires have to be proactive in their legal defense by formally invoking force majeure clauses. By legally asserting that the conflict constitutes an unforeseeable and external event that renders contractual performance impossible, these companies can suspend ongoing financial liabilities related to fixed rent and other payables. Failure to initiate these formal legal proceedings during this period of instability may result in irreversible structural damage to the commercial sector that sustains these global aviation hubs.
Otherwise, the Gulf states may invoke political force majeure, i.e., step-in rights to safeguard national interests, maintain public order, and ensure the airport continues to function as a vital transit artery despite the private operator’s financial or operational distress. In such an event, smaller airport retailers and service providers (like duty-free shops or maintenance firms) rarely have these protections. If they fail, there is often no one with a legal right—or obligation—to “step in” and save them.
The trend of excluding “acts of war” from insurance agreements for major state aviation hubs signals a tightening global insurance market that leaves small-scale aviation businesses in an incredibly precarious position. While large, state-backed megahubs may have the political leverage to negotiate sovereign guarantees or the capital reserves to absorb catastrophic shocks, smaller enterprises—such as flight schools, niche parts suppliers, or private maintenance shops—lack the financial depth to self-insure against such high-magnitude risks. When insurers withdraw war-risk coverage, these small businesses lose their only viable safety net, meaning a single incident of regional conflict could lead to immediate insolvency with no mechanism for financial recovery. This disparity creates a systemic vulnerability where the most financially fragile players in the aviation ecosystem are forced to bear the full weight of geopolitical instability, often resulting in their total exit from the market when a crisis occurs.
As the 2026 conflict prolongs, the resilience of the Middle Eastern aviation hub will depend not just on the strength of its airlines, but on the survival of its private partners. Without immediate legal and fiscal intervention, the commercial infrastructure of these world-class aviation “megahubs” faces the risk of significant reputational damage that will take years to recover.
This alert was prepared by Amna Warsi and Ayasha Warsi who co-lead ABS & Co’s aviation division.
